Can Ukip beat the weather? Farage urges voters to turn out 'before the rain comes' in last ditch bid to secure historic European elections victory

• Polling stations opened across the country at 7am and will close at 10pm 
• There are 4,216 seats on 161 councils up for grabs across England 
• 73 MEPs will be elected across the UK with results announced on Sunday 
• Ukip set to top Euro poll, pushing Labour into second and Tories third
• Lib Dem memo reveals they expect to lose ALL of their MEPs
• Farage suggests joint Tory-Ukip candidates at the 2015 general election
• Voters warned they could be jailed if they take selfies in polling stations
• Police guard polling stations in areas at risk of fraud and intimidation

By Matt Chorley, Mailonline Political Edito

The great British weather could prove decisive in the crunch European and local elections, with heavy rain expected to deter voters from turning out.

As bands of rain swept across the country, Ukip leader Nigel Farage admitted that his hopes of securing an unprecedented victory depend on beating the elements.

Turnout is expected to be around 30 per cent, but could be lower if the electorate is put off by the bad weather. 

The whole of the UK will elect 73 MEPs to be sent to Brussels for the next five years, while in England there are 4,216 seats on 161 councils up for grabs.

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Both Labour and the Conservatives appear reconciled to Ukip coming out on top

Tory leader David Cameron and his wife Samantha voted early at a polling station in London this morning

Labour leader Ed Miliband, and his wife Justine, voted at Sutton Village Hall in his Doncaster constituency

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg was joined by councillor David Baker arrive to cast his vote at a polling station in Sheffield

Ukip leader Nigel Farage poses for photographs as he arrives at a polling station near Biggin Hill

Some councils will start counting ballot papers tonight, with the first results expected around midnight.

Most will emerge during the course of Friday, leaving all the party leaders to celebrate or lick wounds in the full glare of the media spotlight.

Not all EU countries are voting today, with some going to the polls over the weekend, so the results will not be announced until after 10pm on Sunday.

More...

• Top BBC editor brands Ukip racist and sexist on Twitter: News channel boss accused of bias hours before the election
• Is this the moment Ed realised that the man who sold him this bacon sandwich is voting Tory? Labour leader's nationwide tour gets off to a difficult start
• Lib Dem memo reveals they expect to lose all their MEPs in European elections
• Bercow battles to save elections boss who let extremist party use Lee Rigby's name on election ballot papers
• Rocky road? No, we're great mates! Tory rivals Boris and Dave buy cake together in echo of Tony and Gordon's ice-cream pact

All of the party leaders risk a turbulent time if the results go against them.

Nigel Farage predicts he will trigger a ’political earthquake’ if, as polls suggest, Ukip wins the European elections when results are announced on Sunday night.

But as he voted in Kent today, he admitted the weather could be crucial to deciding the outcome.

Speaking beneath leaden skies, the Ukip leader said: 'If our people are motivated, before the rain comes, to go and vote then I think we will get over the line.' 

It would be unprecedented for a small party to come out on top in a nationwide vote, and will cause a headache for both Labour and the Tories.

London Mayor Boris Johnston cycled to Hanover School Polling Station in Islington

Polling stations opened at 7am and will close at 10pm. Council results will emerge overnight and throughout Friday, with the outcome of the European elections announced after 10pm on Sunday

Turnout could be boosted by the bitter rows between Ukip and the other parties

A police officer stands guard outside a polling station in Tower Hamlets after fears the area was deemed 'high risk' for fraud and intimidation

NO BOOTHIES! VOTERS FACE JAIL IF TAKING SELFIES IN POLLING BOOTH

Voters who take a picture of themselves in the polling booth on Thursday could be jailed, it has been warned.

People who tweet photos of themselves and their ballot papers risk breaching secrecy laws and face a £5,000 fine or up to six months in jail. 

The Electoral Commission has written to all returning officers involved in the local and European elections to tell them the selfies are illegal.

But campaigners have said the pictures, which could be nicknamed ‘boothies’, could have encouraged people to vote.

The phenomenon has been popular in the Netherlands and some U.S. states where the polling booth selfies are legal.

Katie Ghose, chief executive of the Electoral Reform Society, said the selfies could lead to more young people voting.

She said: ‘At a time when more and more people are turning away from politics, anything which brings a sense of occasion to election day ought to be encouraged.

‘Of course it’s vital that people’s privacy isn’t invaded in the polling booth. But selfies could be a fun addition to the voting day ritual, especially for young people who are least likely to vote.

‘Rather than seeking to take the fun out of politics we should be doing everything we can to make it more attractive to vote. And if other countries can allow selfies whilst maintaining the secrecy of the ballot, so should we. 

An Opinium poll for the Daily Mail puts Ukip comfortably ahead of Labour, on 32 per cent to 25 per cent.

The Conservatives are on 21 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats battling the Greens for fourth place, each on a miserable 6 per cent. 

Ukip also hopes to improve on the 140 council gains made last year, to secure a stronger local base to use as a springboard for next year’s general election.

Turning out to vote at Cudham C of E Primary School in Westerham, Kent, Mr  Farage shrugged off allegations that Ukip was a racist party as ‘rot’.

He told reporters: 'If we get what we like things will never be quite the same again.'

He added: 'Waking up this morning I thought, 'What on earth do I do?'. I have been campaigning for months and I feel a bit vacant now.'

After a gruelling election campaign, Mr Farage has admitted he was feeling 'frazzled' and announced plans to tackle the perception that Ukip is a 'one-man band'. 

'I am going to appoint, over the course of the summer, spokesmen to take on responsibilities for specific areas and they are the people I'm going to push forward,' he said yesterday.

'I don't think people will vote for us in a general election in numbers if they think it's a one-man band. I intend to change that over the summer.'

He acknowledged it was ‘moonshine’ to suggest that Ukip, which has no MPs, could win the 2015 election, but the party would target winnable seats in an effort to hold the balance of power. 

Ukip has remained on course for a victory in the elections despite a campaign which has often been chaotic, and at times controversial.

A £1.5million poster campaign focussed on immigration was branded racist by critics.

It later emerged that a builder pictured begging for money because he had lost his job to immigrants was actually an actor from Ireland.

Ukip supporters were revealed to be paid members of staff and a decorator who appeared in a glossy TV advert was revealed to have posted a series of offensive and anti-Islam tweets, including one branding the Prophet Mohammed a paedophile.

Mr Farage himself made headlines last week with a car-crash radio interview when he suggested last week that everyone knows ‘the difference’ between Romanians and Germans.

Mr Farage, whose second wife Kirsten is German, said he would not be happy if Romanians moved in next door.

To counter claims that Ukip is racist, the party organised a 'carnival' in central Croydon on Tuesday.

But it descended into chaos when a steel band refused to play, after claiming they did not know it was fora political party, and Ukip members were shouted down by angry protesters.

Mr Farage had to cancel a plan to attend the event, and yesterday admitted: 'We all make mistakes in life and things don't always go according to plan' and, because the party had been leading the polls ahead of tomorrow's elections, it had come under sustained pressure and 'sometimes a few cracks begin to show'.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage expects his party to make big gains in local councils and come out on top in the European Parliament elections, triggering a 'political earthquake' in the UK

David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg will all look to the results of today's vote as an indicator of their prospects for next year;s general election

Political campaigns expert Dr David Cutts, from the University of Bath, said: 'UKIP has been able to broaden its appeal to those voters "left behind" and alarmed by the extent of social and economic change – concerns about European immigration – while retaining their mainstream political legitimacy on the European issue.

'Farage has a unique appeal as a charismatic leader, seen as being able to articulate to both sets of voters.

'The problem however for UKIP moving forward is that they have to keep that uneasy coalition satisfied.

'They also do not possess the local infrastructure, resources, targeting experience and tactical nous on the ground to mount successful constituency campaigns. This is crucial in a general election if UKIP is going to turn growing support into parliamentary seats.'

We could have joint Tory-Ukip candidates in 2015, says Farage

Mr Farage has floated the idea of joint Tory-Ukip candidates in 2015

Nigel Farage yesterday floated the idea of Conservative candidates standing on a joint Tory-UKIP ticket at next year’s general election.

He suggested that there are some Tory Eurosceptics who would be open to the idea because they support a Euro referendum and wish to avoid splitting the centre-right vote in 2015.

Standing for two parties at once was authorised for the first time under a change to the law quietly pushed through early last year.

Mr Farage said: 'I think that if there is a sitting Conservative – as I say, it could be Labour too – but if there is a sitting Conservative MP who genuinely wants this country to be independent, free, self-governing and they go along to a local UKIP association and say they want to do a deal on that basis and run on a joint ticket, we would be open to that idea.'

Eurosceptic Mid Bedfordshire MP Nadine Dorries was the first to go public and say she would consider standing on a joint Ukip-Tory ticket at the next election.

The law – the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 - allows candidates to stand jointly for two parties with a single logo on the ballot paper.

It was enacted, the government claimed at the time, to allow Labour MPs who are also members of the Co-operative Party to use either the Labour logo or the specially created Labour Co-op logo, as under the old rules they could not use either.

Some Tories were suspicious it was an attempt to allow coalition ministers to stand for both parties – an idea which now seems highly unlikely.

Any MP seeking a joint ticket would need the blessing of their party. A Tory party source said: ‘There is absolutely no question of anyone standing on a joint ticket with Ukip. We wouldn’t allow it.’

Lib Dem memo reveals they expect to lose ALL of the MEPs

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has told his party to prepare to lose all of his 12 MEPs

The Lib Dems face a torrid time. Nick Clegg faces the prospect of being pushed into a humiliating fifth place in the Euro elections, behind Natalie Bennett’s Green Party.

Things are so bad the party has prepared a briefing note for senior figures suggesting clinging on to four of MEPs will be considered a success.

A leaked document reveals how top party figures have been told how to react to defeat.

They have been advised to say they ‘expected’ to lose up to all of their 12 representatives in Strasbourg and to simply say they are ‘disappointed’.

The embarrassing memo, leaked to the Guardian newspaper, reveals that in the event of the party winning no seats, or just one or two, in the European elections, they should say: ‘Disappointed with the result but the party remains resolute and this was expected at this point in the electoral cycle.’

If the party clings on to two to three MEPs, senior Lib Dems have been advised to say it is ‘a good result considering the circumstances’.

And three and five seats should be billed as ‘a very encouraging result... much better than almost everyone predicted’.

In 2009, the Lib Dems won 11 seats and another defected to them a year later.

The internal document was presented to the Wheelhouse group, the body chaired by the Lib Dems’ general election co-ordinator Paddy Ashdown. 

In the local vote, the Lib Dems are expected to lose control of Kingston-upon-Thames, in the backyard of Energy Secretary Ed Davey.

Most troubling for Mr Clegg is his patty is losing ground to the Tories.

The Lib Dems could also lose all of their seats in Manchester city council.

Losses of more than 200 seats will be especially bad night for the Lib Dems, who have experienced several such drubbings since joining the coalition in 2010.

Miliband needs to prove he can breakthrough in the south

Mr Miliband hopes to make gains of up to 600 council seats to prove he is making progress with voters

As leader of the opposition, Mr Miliband could expect to be further ahead in the polls with only a year until the general election

A year out from the country choosing a new government, Ed Miliband could expect to be well ahead in the polls and on course for victory this week.

But Ukip has eaten into Labour’s traditional working class support, and has hoovered up the anti-government protest vote which the official opposition would have normally counted on.

Mr Miliband said he was feeling 'very good' as he cast his votes at Sutton village hall in his Doncaster North constituency. 

Not all of his MPs feel the same.

After a difficult week - including two disastrous interviews and an ill-advised photo opportunity eating a bacon sandwich - nervous Labour MPs fear Mr Miliband is failing to connect with voters.

To prove Labour is making progress in the areas that will decide the next general election, gains need to be made from the Tories in Trafford, Swindon, Crawley, Croydon and Peterborough.

He has been under pressure after two polls last week put the Tories ahead for the first time in two years.  

Labour claims it might be outspent by the Tories, but has a better ground operation in the areas that matter. 

This is the first big test of that strategy, with gains of up to 600 councils seats expected.

He embarked on a 10 visits - taking him from London to his Doncaster constituency via towns in the South East, East of England, East Midlands and Yorkshire & Humberside. 

But instead of the focus on his plans to tackle the cost of living, all the headlines were about the mess he appeared to get in while eating a bacon sandwich.

Labour MPs will hope that the party's spin doctors can get their act together before the general election. 

Tories expect to come third but hope to avoid fresh infighting

The Tories could come third for the first time in a national election

David Cameron is braced for the worst. Predictions the Tories will come third in the Euro elections may have been floating around for six months or more, but that does make it any less palatable to the party’s MPs and activists.

The Prime Minister hopes that a Ukip victory is ’priced in’ to the political markets, so a Conservative party meltdown next week fails to materialise.

Mr Cameron hopes to quickly move on from the Euro elections to focus on the Queen's Speech and forthcoming reshuffle

Instead he wants to focus on the Newark by-election on June 5, and hope that victory there, and a successful Queen’s Speech and reshuffle, will halt the Ukip bandwagon.

Conservative strategists point to a sharp decline in Mr Farage’s personal ratings in recent weeks and compare him to a ‘shock jock’ radio host whose outbursts will not convince voters at a general election. 

The Tories are defending 1,574 council seats and have control of 54 authorities. 

They are expected to lose between 200 and 300 seats, so anything less will be taken as a sign of encouragement for a governing party.

Mr Cameron said only a Conservative government could deliver a reformed relationship with Brussels, with new controls on free movement and further restrictions on migrants’ benefits.

That would followed by an in/out referendum on Britain’s membership by the end of 2017.

The Prime Minister said: ‘I’m convinced that we will get the changes that we want and my aim is to secure Britain’s place in a reformed European Union.

‘But that’s the real choice at this election – you’ve got Labour and the Liberals who can’t see anything wrong with Europe and you’ve got Ukip who can’t see anything right with Europe and want to walk away.’