- .Scotland’s First Minister will push for another vote before the UK leaves the EU.
- .Provoked Mrs May to accuse her of ‘playing politics with future of our country’
- .PM set to insist any second independence vote is held after UK exits the EU
- .An independent Scotland 'would have to put up taxes or slash spending'
- .That is the view of Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies
- .Liz Cameron said it would have ‘material impact upon businesses in Scotland’
Theresa May is today poised to emphatically reject Nicola Sturgeon’s timetable for a second vote on Scottish independence, amid fears it could undermine Brexit.
Scotland’s First Minister yesterday declared she will push for another referendum just before the UK leaves the EU.
She insisted Scots deserved a ‘real choice’ over EU membership and threatened to throw a grenade into Brexit talks by holding the vote between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.
It provoked Mrs May to accuse her of ‘playing politics with the future of our country’.
The Prime Minister said the SNP had ‘tunnel vision’ on independence and urged Miss Sturgeon to focus on improving Scotland’s public services rather than ‘more uncertainty and division’, adding: ‘Politics is not a game.’
Government sources last night indicated Mrs May was set to insist any second independence vote is held after Britain has left the EU.
Battle royale: Nicola Sturgeon (pictured) is hell-bent on becoming the first Prime Minister of an independent Scotland - but Theresa May is today poised to emphatically reject Nicola Sturgeon’s timetable
It followed her crushing defeat of a threatened revolt as MPs decisively threw out two amendments to the Brexit Bill by the Lords.
Peers last night abandoned the amendments, allowing the legislation to be given royal assent this morning – the last step before Mrs May can trigger Article 50.
Yesterday a source described Miss Sturgeon’s intervention as ‘unpatriotic’ and said the proposed timing could ‘undermine negotiations’ by allowing Brussels to play Scotland off against the rest of the UK. Another said allowing a referendum during Brexit talks could ‘only damage the chances of getting the best deal’.
A Government spokesman described the suggested timetable as the ‘worst possible’. The warning came as the SNP’s case for independence was undermined by a series of revelations, including:
- Polls showed a ‘clear majority’ of Scots do not want a second referendum, less than three years after voting by 55-45 to remain in the UK;
- Brussels made it clear Scotland would have to re-apply to join the EU if it separates from the UK – potentially leaving it outside its biggest markets for years;
- The Institute for Fiscal Studies said an independent Scotland would have to raise taxes or cut spending to replace the huge subsidies it receives from England;
- Business leaders criticised the move, with the Scottish Chambers of Commerce saying the ‘continual uncertainty’ would have a ‘material impact upon businesses in Scotland’;
- There were warnings about the implications for Scotland’s defences as Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said it would have to re-apply to the security pact.
In 2014, the SNP said the referendum was a ‘once in a generation’ chance. But Miss Sturgeon has been threatening a second referendum since last June when Scotland voted to remain in the EU.
Speaking at her official residence, Bute House in Edinburgh, the SNP leader said she would ask the Scottish Parliament to begin the legal process next week.
Prime Minister Theresa May insisted the majority of Scots did not want another referendum on independence despite Mrs Sturgeon's 'tunnel vision'
The latest poll on Scottish independence showed voters split with a very narrow advantage for staying inside the UK
Both the pro-independence and the pro-union camps were split over their attitudes in the Brexit referendum, according to YouGov
Although the SNP lost its majority at Holyrood, it has the support of the Greens on the issue, meaning Miss Sturgeon is likely to win parliamentary backing.
Nicola Sturgeon, left, and Mrs May at the dedication to the new Iraq and Afghanistan war memorial in London last week
But, under the terms of Labour’s devolution deal, any referendum also has to be approved by MPs at Westminster. Downing Street was tight-lipped yesterday on exactly how Mrs May will respond.
The PM’s official spokesman said: ‘We have said there shouldn’t be a second referendum. But as for the issue, it hasn’t gone through the Scottish Parliament yet … We are waiting for the Scottish Parliament to reach a decision. But we are 100 per cent clear that we do not believe there should be a second independence referendum. They said at the time this would decide the issue for a generation.’
In a separate statement, a Government spokesman indicated Miss Sturgeon’s timetable was unacceptable, saying: ‘Another referendum would be divisive and cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time.’
Miss Sturgeon yesterday accused Mrs May of failing to respect Scotland’s interests, by insisting that the UK must leave the single market as part of Brexit.
She claimed her appeals to the Prime Minister on the issue had been met with a ‘brick wall of intransigence’. ‘If Scotland can be ignored on an issue as important as our membership of the EU and the single market, then it is clear that our voice and our interests can be ignored at any time and on any issue,’ she added.
The First Minister said Scotland stood at a ‘hugely important crossroads’. She claimed leaving the EU would hit the economy and affect how ‘open, welcoming, diverse and fair’ the country was.
‘In short, it is not just our relationship with Europe that is at stake,’ she said. ‘What is at stake is the kind of country we will become.’
Pro-independence campaigners waved saltire flags adorned with the word 'Yes' during a rally held at Glasgow's George Square
The move is the biggest gamble of Miss Sturgeon's political career, and will trigger a high-stakes clash with Downing Street over the timing of the vote
The 2014 referendum was held after David Cameron backed the SNP’s demand for a vote on independence.
On that occasion, the Government gave the Scottish Parliament a relatively free rein on the timing, the question asked and the electoral franchise, which was extended to include 16-year-olds.
But ministers are not expected to give Miss Sturgeon a blank cheque if she presses ahead with her threat to hold a second referendum.
Her proposal threw Labour into chaos, with Jeremy Corbyn being forced to abandon his position that a second vote would be ‘absolutely fine’, after intense pressure from senior figures in the party.
A BMG poll for the Herald newspaper found only 39 per cent of Scots back a second referendum, with 49 per cent opposed. Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson said Miss Sturgeon had ‘no mandate’ for a second referendum after losing her majority at Holyrood.
‘She’s trying to convert votes like mine, which were for Remain in the EU referendum, into votes for another independence referendum,’ Miss Davidson said.
‘The people of Scotland are angry at the First Minister today because she is not speaking for Scotland.’
EU wouldn't let them in for years
Nicola Sturgeon said she would demand authority from the Westminster government to hold a fresh Scottish independence referendum
Brussels delivered a blunt assessment of Nicola Sturgeon’s plans last night, warning that Scotland would have to re-apply to join the EU if it votes for independence.
Officials suggested Scots would have to join the back of a queue containing several other countries, meaning the process could drag on for years. The lukewarm reaction appeared to pour cold water on the SNP leader’s belief an independent Scotland will be offered fast-track EU membership.
It reflects a deep unease among EU chiefs about offering the country special treatment in the fallout from Brexit. The warning was followed by another from Nato that Scotland may not be able to remain in the defence alliance if it gets independence.
Jens Stoltenberg, the group’s secretary-general, said: ‘By leaving the UK, it will also be leaving Nato, but of course it is possible to apply for membership and then the allies would then decide.’ Despite Miss Sturgeon’s desire to remain in the EU, the bloc yesterday said it backed a doctrine laid out by former European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, who said during the first referendum that an independent Scotland would be left outside the EU.
After initially ruling out becoming involved in the debate, the Commission yesterday said the legal view was still fully supported.
While this approach still offers a path to rejoin the EU, experts believe the process would be fraught with difficulty and may lead to Scotland being left in limbo, cut off from both London and Brussels.
A deal would have to be ratified by the European Parliament, as well as other member states, and would likely face significant opposition from Spain, which believes it could encourage separatists in Catalonia.
The timescale of such wrangles is also likely to pale in comparison to the two years set out for Brexit negotiations, with recent ascensions taking around ten years.
While some have suggested Scotland’s current EU-compliant law-book could speed up the process, the bloc’s bosses may insist that Miss Sturgeon commits to joining the eurozone – leaving her with the daunting task of convincing voters to ignore the risks surrounding the ill-fated currency.
Brussels could also demand measures to tackle Scotland’s sizeable deficit.
Scots warned of economic chaos: Country would have to raise tax or slash their spending if it became independent, says top economist
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the nation could also be pushed into joining the euro if it wanted to remain in the EU.
Scotland would be forced to raise taxes or slash spending if it became independent, a leading economist warned yesterday.
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the nation could also be pushed into joining the euro if it wanted to remain in the EU.
And he pointed to how public spending is more than £1,000 higher per person north of the border, despite tax revenues being similar.
The fall in the price of oil had made Scotland’s financial position more difficult since the last independence referendum in 2014, he said, adding that the Scottish economy could suffer even more if it loosened its trading ties with the rest of the UK.
‘We get just about as much tax per person from everyone in Scotland as we do in the rest of the UK,’ Mr Johnson said.
‘But spending in Scotland is more than £1,000 per person higher than spending in the rest of the UK. So what that means is that there is a big transfer of money from the rest of the UK to Scotland … if Scotland were to become independent it would have to either reduce its spending by more than £1,000 per head or increase its taxes by more than £1,000 per head.’
The question of whether Scotland would be able to continue using the pound was a major argument in the 2014 vote. Yesterday, Mr Johnson argued Brexit could make it less likely.
He said: ‘It would clearly be more difficult to maintain the pound if the UK was outside the EU and Scotland was inside … the pressure on Scotland politically from the rest of the EU to join the euro would be significant.’
He told BBC Radio 4’s World At One: ‘Two things have changed since the last Scottish referendum … the Scottish fiscal situation has got worse, relative to that of the rest of the UK, because the oil price has gone down …
‘Secondly, the Brexit vote means the UK looks like it is going to come out of the single market. But if an independent Scotland were to be in the EU, within the single market … that potentially hinders it very badly in terms of its access to the UK market.’ Business leaders warned a second vote would create uncertainty for firms.
Liz Cameron of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said Scotland’s two referendums and two elections in less than three years had caused a ‘continual uncertainty’ with a ‘material impact upon businesses in Scotland’.
She added: ‘A further referendum would be no different.’ Sir Iain McMillan, ex-director of CBI Scotland, said: ‘A never-ending debate about Scotland’s position within the UK makes Scotland look, from the outside, politically unstable.’
Adam Marshall of the British Chambers of Commerce added: ‘Firms understandably fear that another drawn-out constitutional debate would divert both Holyrood and Westminster away from delivering the best possible environment for business and growth.’
Theresa May warned the economic case for independence ‘simply does not add up’ in a speech to the Scottish Tory Party earlier this month. ‘There is no economic case for breaking up the United Kingdom, or of loosening the ties which bind us together,’ she said.
Labour disarray as Corbyn is forced into a farcical U-turn
Coming or going? Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (pictured) did a rapid U-turn
Labour was in chaos over Scottish independence last night, as Jeremy Corbyn was forced into a U-turn on the issue.
The Labour leader outraged his own ranks at the weekend when he said it would be ‘absolutely fine’ for the Scottish Government to hold a second referendum. One MP described Mr Corbyn’s intervention as ‘moronic’, pointing out that Labour would struggle to ever form a government again if Scotland becomes independent. But Mr Corbyn backed down yesterday, saying he was ‘not in favour of a referendum’. ‘Let’s be absolutely clear, I do not think there should be another referendum,’ he said.
‘Independence would be economically catastrophic for many people in Scotland.’ To add to the confusion, Mr Corbyn said Labour would vote against a referendum in the Scottish Parliament, but would not vote against it at Westminster. ‘Labour believes it would be wrong to hold another so soon and Scottish Labour will oppose it in the Scottish parliament,’ he said. ‘If, however, the Scottish parliament votes for one, Labour will not block that democratic decision at Westminster.’
Labour’s Scottish leader Kezia Dugdale said: ‘Labour believes that together we’re stronger. That is why we firmly oppose a second referendum and Scottish Labour MSPs will vote against the SNP’s proposals next week.’
Scotland is on a knife edge: Polls since the 2014 referendum offer few clues to the second vote
Polls show Scotland remains deeply divided on the question of independence as most surveys show support for the Union only narrowly ahead.
The most recent survey out today showed support for the Union on 52 per cent against 48 per cent for independence, once don't knows are removed.
This is closer than the 2014 result and the SNP insist the increase in their vote during the last campaigns means a new one is winnable.
The turbulent political landscape since the No vote in the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 has had pollsters recording surges and dips in support for an independent Scotland.
Polls since 2014 have generally shown support for the Union ahead - but often by less than the result at the referendum
A poll the month after the referendum found a majority would support independence, given the chance to vote again.
The YouGov poll for The Times found increased support for independence, with 49 per cent of the 1,078 adults surveyed between October 27 and 30 indicating they would vote Yes against 45 per cent voting No.
However, the bounce did not last and the following month a Survation poll for the Daily Record recorded Yes voters dropping to 44 per cent with No at 48 per cent.
A YouGov survey for the Times at the end of August last year putting Yes at 47 per cent and No at 53 per cent once the 'don't knows' were removed.
One of the most recent polls, conducted by BMG for the Herald at the end of January, showed support for independence rising following the Prime Minister's 'hard Brexit' speech.
The survey of 1,067 Scots found 49 per cent back independence while 51 per cent want to stay in the UK, when the 'don't knows' are excluded.
Current polls are closer than the 2014 result and the SNP insist the increase in their vote during the last campaigns means a new one is winnable
Professor John Curtice said the polls had been 'bouncing around a pretty constant average' between the independence and EU referendums, but neither side could be sure of securing their desired result if another Scottish vote was held.
He said: 'Basically, if we take the polls after September 18, 2014 through to June 22, 2016, they averaged about Yes 47% and No 53% with no discernible change. It's just been bouncing around a pretty constant average.
'Three polls had Yes ahead in the immediate aftermath of Brexit but since then were back to Yes 47%, No 53%.'
He added: 'There's more people in favour of Scottish independence than in 2014, that's absolutely clear but it's still not quite half.
'We're still in the situation where the SNP can't be sure of winning but equally Theresa May can't be sure of them losing another independence referendum.'
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