When the votes of the Scottish referendum are totted up on Friday morning, there will be many millions of people south of the border eagerly hanging on the results. I don’t expect to go to bed on Thursday night.
Even a ‘No’ vote will lead to considerable changes. New powers will be transferred to Scotland, though they will hardly satisfy hard-line Nationalists, who will be bitter and disgruntled inhabitants of our island.
But if Scotland plumps for independence — equally likely — the changes will be cataclysmic. The lives of English, Welsh and Northern Irish people will be transformed every bit as much as the lives of Scots.
When the votes of the Scottish referendum are totted up on Friday morning, there will be many millions of people south of the border eagerly hanging on the results
Speaking personally, I know I will grieve on Friday morning if my country, Britain, has been voted out of existence. Millions of people will feel likewise. The end of the nation that has done more than any other to shape the modern age, and saved the free world as recently as 1940, is really too big an idea to get one’s mind around.
Let me enumerate some of the largely undiscussed consequences of the death of Britain. Economically, politically and socially we would all of us enter a pretty scary new world.
Most economists have predicted a financial shock for Scotland in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote, but it seems likely that, at any rate in the immediate future, the rump of the UK comprising England, Wales and Northern Ireland would also experience a sharp reverse.
The U.S. mega-bank Goldman Sachs is one of several forecasters to fear a eurozone-style currency crisis as a result of market uncertainty over whether or not there would be currency union with an independent Scotland.
Early last week the pound plummeted when the first opinion poll to indicate a majority in favour of independence was published, and a ‘Yes’ vote would almost certainly have a much more dramatic effect. If the stock market followed suit for any length of time, the real economy, including people’s pensions, might be affected.
Fifteen out of 18 economists recently questioned by Reuters said a vote for independence posed a ‘significant’ or ‘highly significant’ threat to their growth forecasts for Britain for the next year, which at the moment put this country at the head of the advanced economies.
The Scottish Saltire — the flag of St Andrew — is integral to the Union Flag, which couldn’t be flown by a country no longer including Scotland. A flag is the symbol of a nation, and the shredding of the Union flag would symbolise the destruction of Britain
It could, of course, be argued that any economic trauma suffered by the rump of the UK would likely be short-term, and that once relieved of the responsibility for subsidising Scotland (which receives more than £1,600 per head a year more in government expenditure than England), the economy south of the border might flourish.
But no such argument could be made about the international and political standing of a diminished UK without Scotland. Countries such as Brazil and India have been justifiably eyeing up Britain’s permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, which confers the status of a world power.
A country shorn of 32 per cent of its land mass and ten per cent of its population would find it very hard to hang on to its already disputed UN seat. It’s true Russia managed to do so after the break-up of the Soviet Union, but it remains an enormous transcontinental power with a much larger population.
Britain would also find itself a less important member of the Nato military alliance. Its defence budget, already unwisely savaged by this Government, would be further reduced because some ten per cent of its military assets (excluding the Trident nuclear deterrent, which the Nationalists don’t want) would be handed over to Scotland.
David Cameron, making a speech in Aberdeen where he said he would be 'utterly heartbroken' if Scotland leaves the UK
Alistair Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign, meets with voters during an election rally in Kilmarnock
Scottish regiments have historically provided a disproportionately large share of Britain’s Armed Forces, and distinguished themselves in countless conflicts. Deprived of their immeasurable contribution, and trying to get by on a smaller budget, we would be taken even less seriously as a military power by our potential enemies.
And although we would probably retain the number of votes to which we are entitled in the counsels of the European Union, our position as a leading EU power would inevitably weaken, and we would find ourselves behind France, and closer to nations such as Italy and Spain in the EU pecking order.
More fundamental even than all this, I fear the new country built around England which emerged from the debris might be less internationalist and outgoing than Britain has traditionally been. We would be in danger of turning into an insular, unambitious little country.
How our enemies around the world — from the killing fields of the Islamic State jihadists to the chancelleries of some of our supposed allies — must rejoice at the prospect of our becoming a depleted stump of a country on the maps of the world!
A country, moreover, which would need a new flag to mark its radically altered status. The Scottish Saltire — the flag of St Andrew — is integral to the Union Flag, which couldn’t be flown by a country no longer including Scotland. A flag is the symbol of a nation, and the shredding of the Union flag would symbolise the destruction of Britain.
All these factors would profoundly affect the way in which we see ourselves, as well as the way in which we are seen by others. But I suggest the rupturing of family and emotional ties resulting from a ‘Yes’ vote on Thursday could deliver an even greater psychological shock.
SNP leader Alex Salmond, persuading voters to vote yes on Thursday at an event at Edinburgh airport
There are nearly a million Scots-born people living in England. It is monstrous that they should have been denied any say in the future of the land in which they were born. I suspect many of them will feel disorientated if Scotland chooses independence.
In addition, there are many millions of people living in England who are partly of Scottish descent, or have Scottish connections. My own family is not particularly Scottish, but even I can offer an uncle-by-marriage and a brother-in-law who both hail from north of the border. My parents first met in Scotland. My wife’s mother was mostly Scottish, and spent much of her childhood in Argyllshire.
I accept there are some in England who would like to be rid of the Scots, but I doubt there are very many of them. A recent poll commissioned by this newspaper found that seven out of ten English people want the Scots to stay.
There are so many English, Northern Irish and Welsh people whose bonds with Scotland are part of their identity. A great cairn at Gretna on the Scottish border has been built out of more than 100,000 stones carrying messages of affection and loyalty towards a Union which has endured for more than 300 years. Many have visited it and wept, moved to tears by the enormity of what may be about to happen.
There are many millions of people living in England who are partly of Scottish descent, or have Scottish connections
I don’t believe the terrible breach confronting us is motivated by any deep grievance or even a desire for nationhood on the part of most Scots. Deep ties of history are threatened by arguments that are mostly frivolous and largely transient. They are chiefly deployed by a man, the slithery Alex Salmond, who shamelessly manipulates the truth in his quest for power.
Do I hear someone say that without Scotland we would have permanent Tory majorities in England? So what — even if it were true? Like David Cameron, all decent people will put their country before any party.
The worst of it is that we are all of us, south of the border, utterly impotent, unable to do anything for our country, whose demise would have such a far-reaching effect on our lives.
A few thousand, or even a few hundred votes, or even ten, could determine the future of Britain. It’s almost unbelievable. All we can do is wait and pray — and hope there are enough Scots on Thursday to defend our country in a once-and-for-all referendum.
If there aren’t, millions of people will grieve when they learn on Friday morning that our great nation has been rent asunder, and carelessly voted into oblivion.
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